7
Xarabella
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |