5
Balboni's Crew
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 11 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |