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2

Hot Potato

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 66

Woodbine · Race 11 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 29/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 45 par29/06C7OR 45C6 @ Woodbine 24/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 42 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 42 parC7 @ Woodbine 28/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 46 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 46 par28/09C7OR 46C9 @ Woodbine 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 48 parC7 @ Woodbine 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 49 par15/11C7OR 49C7 @ Woodbine 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 55 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 55 parC9 @ Woodbine 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 57 · 1m110y 118 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 57 par19/06C9OR 57C9 @ Woodbine 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 1m110y 118 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 54 parC8 @ Woodbine 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 53 par14/08C8OR 53projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Woodbine?8th8th0
2026-07-20Woodbine?1st2nd−1
2026-06-19Woodbine?3rd4th−1
2026-05-23Woodbine?9th8th+1
2025-11-15Woodbine?5th4th+1
2025-11-08Woodbine?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/068/1119/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20256th25/10%17%+0.17
24/08/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
28/09/20257th16/116%14%-0.02
08/11/20254th20/10%57%+0.57
15/11/20255th40/10%50%+0.50
23/05/20269th33/10%0%0.00
19/06/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
20/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
14/08/20268th40/10%22%+0.22