Little Thonio
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Woodbine · Race 11 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2024-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 08/12/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |