4
Alley Oop Johnny
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 20% | -0.75 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |