Swan Lake
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |