1
Aleatoric
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |