Pepper Patch
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 86
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |