6
Karat Gold
2yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -56.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |