4
Mandalena
2yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |