Shimmering Frost

2yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 55

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-07-25	Colonial Downs	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-07-05	Colonial Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength27%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/07/2026	4th	9/2	76%	63%	-0.14
25/07/2026	6th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
15/08/2026	7th	12/1	37%	14%	-0.23