4
Commander At Sea
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |