2
Isaac Leo
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |