Lean Music Machine
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |