2
Lohan
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |