Mister Blue
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 71% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |