14:15 · Yarmouth

Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery

6f 3yGoodClass 42YO onlyTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Value2
OR 82
10/1
Dubai Charm silks

Mr Abdulla Al Mansoori

2yo Filly · 9-6

Blackbeard - Arabic Charm (Exceed And Excel)

Rossa Ryan70%R Hughes60%
230130
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Well beaten in the Albany before getting off the mark on nursery debut here (5f). Still in good form when third in a stronger event over same C&D latest and probably biting off more than she could chew back up in listed company last time. Respected back at this level.

Class Advantage

26/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/0413/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par5/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/08 · mark par14/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par14/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 17%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 86%26/04Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 71%Pos 20 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 20 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 21%19/06Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%5/08Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%14/08
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.2%Ahead 3/4
1
Top Pick1
OR 86
4/1
Soldier Of The Sea silks

Mr Abdulla Al Mansoori

2yo Colt · 9-10

Blackbeard - East Of Eden (Exceed And Excel)

Tom Marquand70%W J Knight60%
124
7.0Going 8.0

€100,000 breeze-up purchase who made a successful start to his career when getting up late at Ffos Las (6f, good to firm) in June. Has still looked a shade green when running to a similar level in novices at Salisbury and Ascot. Opening mark looks on the stiff side but yard are in great form.

Class Advantage

29/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a29/0621/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/074/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 67%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%29/06Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 75%21/07Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%4/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.6%Ahead 1/3
6
Market Fav5
OR 78
7/4
Catching Dreams silks

Godolphin

2yo Colt · 9-2

Showcasing - Chasing Dreams (Starspangledbanner)

Toby Moore60%−7lbC Appleby60%
23
7.0Going 8.0

Showcasing colt who shaped encouragingly when second of 7 in novice at Lingfield (5f, good to firm) on debut, finishing well but unable to run down a more experienced rival. Perhaps caught out but a quick turnaround at Sandown 2 weeks ago and he can still improve now entering a nursery.

Class Advantage

25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a25/076/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a6/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength8%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f 3y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%25/07Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 75%6/08
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.2%Ahead 0/2
7
6
OR 78
16/1
Conciliate silks

Mr Kevin Quinn

2yo Colt · 9-2

St Mark's Basilica - Declaring Love (Dubawi)

D Egan60%J Butler
7310
5.0Going 7.0

Didn't need to improve on the level displayed when third at York in June to get off the mark at Ayr the following month. Displayed a good attitude that day but seemed out of his depth in a big-field sales race at Newmarket 4 weeks ago and might need to progress on nursery bow.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0513/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/065/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a5/0722/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength66%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 14%20/05Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 67%13/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%5/07Pos 15 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 18%22/08
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.7%Ahead 3/4
2
8
OR 83
10/1
Bill The Bull silks

Vicarage Dreamers

2yo Colt · 9-7

Coulsty - Princess Banu (Oasis Dream)

William Carson60%Adam Kirby
341809
4.0Class ↓3
Tongue strap

Won a Bath maiden in June but well held since in the Super Sprint and at listed/Group level. Goes back up in trip for nursery debut but has a little bit to prove at present, for all this rates as a much simpler assignment,

Class Advantage

18/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/0528/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par18/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par29/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par29/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength95%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%18/05Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%5/06Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 52%18/07Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%29/07
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength54%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.9%Ahead 3/4
9
3
OR 76
14/1
Easy Answer silks

The Royal Ascot Racing Club

2yo Colt · 9-0

No Nay Never - Easily (Galileo)

Oisin Murphy80%M L W Bell60%
303
5.0Class ↓4Going 7.0

Show plenty to work on when third in C&D novice on debut in May before finding the company too hot in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Failed to improve for drop back in grade when third of 8 in novice at Salisbury (6f, good) 36 days ago but opening mark looks fair enough.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0516/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/0612/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a12/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength85%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 71%20/05Pos 15 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 30%16/06Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 71%12/08
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.3%Ahead 2/3
4
4
OR 81
16/1
Mirzimaan silks

Shadwell Estate Company Ltd

2yo Colt · 9-5

Mohaather - Altaayshah (Dark Angel)

Billy Loughnane80%0/1G Boughey
0120
4.0

Proved a different proposition than on debut when successful in a big-field Newbury novice (6f) and looked unlucky not to follow up in muddling race at Newcastle (6f). Shaped as if amiss when trailing home last of 18 in a nursery at York's Ebor Festival 4 weeks ago, though, so has to bounce back.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/059/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0725/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/0720/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 25%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 13 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%15/05Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 100%9/07Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 92%25/07Pos 18 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 18 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%20/08
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.3%Ahead 1/4
8
7
OR 77
10/1
Eighth Immortal silks

White Rose Bloodstock 1

2yo Colt · 9-1

Naval Crown - Tara Celeb (Excelebration)

K Shoemark60%Jack Jones60%
2332
7.0Going 7.0
Cheek pieces

Has run to fair level when placed on all 4 starts to date, just no match for an improving rival when second of 12 in maiden at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) 26 days ago. Cheekpieces sported there are retained and whilst his opening mark is fair, he might be vulnerable to progressive types again.

Class Advantage

13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a13/0610/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a10/071/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/0822/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 88%13/06Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 82%10/07Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%1/08Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 91%22/08
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.6%Ahead 0/4