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14:15 · Beverley

Eddie And Violet Smith Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

5fGoodClass 23YO plusTURF6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
3
OR 94
9/4
Toca Madera silks

L Bond & Sheikh Aymen Jawad al Hamandi

Toca Madera

5yo Gelding · 9-8

Bated Breath - Hala Hala (Invincible Spirit)

D Tudhope60%1/8D O'Meara80%
453020
4.0Class ↓2

Gained a first success for this yard over 5f at Doncaster in June and has shaped well on a few occasions since. Too keen for his own good in the Portland at Doncaster (5.6f, good) 10 days ago but the return to a bare 5f could suit.

Class Advantage

28/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par28/071/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par19/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par29/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 86%28/07Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 85%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%19/08Pos 16 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 16 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 21%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 80%29/08Pos 12 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 12 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 45%12/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.7%Ahead 2/4
6
Value2
OR 54
200/1
Opal Storm silks

Brian Rothwell Racing

Opal Storm

6yo Mare · 9-0

Hot Streak - Dark Opal (Camacho)

T Eaves0/1B Rothwell70%
189461
6.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Third win of a productive campaign when landing a big-field sprint at Ayr (5f, soft) last Thursday but faces a very stiff task on these terms.

Class Advantage

20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/0728/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par24/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par9/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par17/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%20/07Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 13%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%13/08Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 55%9/09Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%17/09
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +41.0%Ahead 4/4
2
Market Fav5
OR 108
11/8
Jakajaro silks

Mrs Fitri Hay

Jakajaro

5yo Gelding · 9-13

Too Darn Hot - Summer Flower (Oasis Dream)

J P Spencer60%2/11R M H Cowell
145308
4.0Class ↓2

Much improved for the switch to front-running tactics this season, winning 5f handicaps at Newmarket and York in the spring. Held his own in Group races on his next 3 outings. His run of good form has come to a halt the last twice but this is a drop in grade.

Class Advantage

14/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par14/0523/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par16/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par18/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par31/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par13/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par13/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength73%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 17%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%14/05Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 84%16/06Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 78%Pos 11 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 11 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%31/07Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 56%13/09
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.2%Ahead 2/4
7
Top Pick1
OR 91
80/1
Wor Faayth silks

Elwick Stud

Wor Faayth

3yo Filly · 8-13

Ardad - Faay (Dark Angel)

Harry RussellB Ellison
31186
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓2

Useful 2-y-o last season, including a win in a 6f French listed race. This is a belated return to action and a watching brief is the percentage call.

Class Advantage

30/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a30/0526/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a27/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par20/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 20%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 75%30/05Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%26/06Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%27/07Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 30%21/08Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 29%20/09
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -4.8%Ahead 3/4
1
4
OR 99
9/2
Badri silks

Rjh Ltd And Mr D Padgett

Badri

9yo Gelding · 10-1

Dark Angel - Penny Drops (Invincible Spirit)

Connor Beasley60%0/1M Herrington
110230
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓1

Most likeable type who has enjoyed an excellent season, bagging 4 handicaps during the summer. Another cracking effort when third to Jm Jungle in the Bullet here (heavy) in August. The type to bounce back from a rare below-par effort in the Portland but has to give weight to smart rivals.

Class Advantage

7/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above7/07 · mark par7/0717/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par10/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below10/08 · mark par16/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par30/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%7/07Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 13 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 13 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 20%10/08Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 71%30/08Pos 17 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%12/09
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.2%Ahead 2/4
5
6
OR 99
9/2
Ain't Nobody silks

J Blackburn & J Matthews

Ain't Nobody

4yo Gelding · 9-5

Sands Of Mali - Burmese Waltz (Showcasing)

K Stott70%0/6K A Ryan60%
709007
2.0Class ↓2

Seemed to excel himself in first-time headgear when second in last season's Nunthorpe. Hasn't hit the same heights since, including well beaten in the Bullet here 23 days ago. A bounce back is needed.

Class Advantage

5/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/10 · mark par5/102/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/05 · mark par13/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par16/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par21/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par30/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 63%5/10Pos 14 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 14 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%13/05Pos 15 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 29%21/08Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 14%30/08
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.5%Ahead 3/4