5
Asbury Park
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 44% | -0.50 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |