3
El Cordobes
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 126
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-14 | York | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Newbury | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 93% | +0.03 |
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |