6
Fort George
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 120
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.28 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 91% | +0.00 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |