1
Minaret Station
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 112
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | BHA88 | 1st | 11th | −9 |
| 2024-10-06 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2024 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |