2
Pride Of Arras
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 117
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Bahrain | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-08-20 | York | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Curragh | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 07/06/2025 | 17th | 4/1 | 79% | 6% | -0.73 |
| 29/06/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |