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8

Esna

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 105

Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f Sft 12830/0824 @ Sandown 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f Sft 128C0 @ ParisLongchamp 05/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y Ver 123 · HIGHER CLASS5/10C?1 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 107 · 1m2f GF 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 105 · 1m2f Goo 128 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 105 par16/051OR 1051 @ Chantilly 14/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m2f96y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 103 · 7f213y GF 123 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 103 par25/071OR 1031 @ Deauville 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 105 · 7f209y Sft 124 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 105 par15/081OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Deauville12nd2nd−0
2026-07-25Ascot12nd2nd−0
2026-06-14Chantilly111th11th+0
2026-05-16Newbury11st2nd−0
2026-05-03Newmarket14th5th−0
2025-10-05ParisLongchamp?4th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/083/0525/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
17/09/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
05/10/20254th25/10%57%+0.57
03/05/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
16/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
14/06/202611th40/10%0%0.00
25/07/20262nd40/10%86%+0.86
15/08/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38