7
Evershed
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Colonial Downs | BHA97 | 2nd | 13th | −9 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 07/12/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 15/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |