3
Favorite Memory
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-19 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 10th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 02/08/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |