Fionn
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 38% | -0.52 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |