Gezora
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2025-09-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 11/05/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 05/10/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |