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Kathynmarissa

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 107

Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 29/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 98 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark29/06/2024 · OR 98 par29/06C5OR 98C0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m1f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark02/08/2024 · OR 100 parBHA104 @ Kentucky Downs 11/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 1m2f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark11/09/2024 · OR 104 par11/09104OR 104C0 @ Santa Anita 27/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 1m2f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/12/2024 · OR 103 parC1 @ Santa Anita 15/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 107 · 1m2f Gd 122 · beat its mark15/03/2025 · OR 107 par15/03C1OR 107C6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 123 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 105 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 111 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 111 par1/05C1OR 111C0 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 1m1f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 1m1f Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 108 par18/07C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Saratoga?1st1st+0
2026-06-05Saratoga?3rd3rd+0
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?1st1st−0
2025-08-28Saratoga?1st7th−5
2025-03-15Santa Anita?5th5th−0
2024-12-27Santa Anita?2nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0627/121/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20243rd11/271%71%+0.00
02/08/20242nd14/126%75%+0.49
11/09/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
27/12/20242nd4/179%90%+0.11
15/03/20255th8/1597%33%-0.64
28/08/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
01/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
05/06/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
18/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13