Opulent Restraint
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |