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5

Storm Miami

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 104

Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 102 par31/10C6OR 102C6 @ Fair Grounds 27/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 105 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 11/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 120 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 108 par11/12C6OR 108C5 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m 120 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 102 parC5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 94 par18/04C5OR 94C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 99 · 1m3f Fm 120 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 99 parC1 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m3f Fm 122 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 98 par13/06C1OR 98C0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 105 · 1m4f 120 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 105 parC1 @ Saratoga 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 1m3f Fm 124 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 104 par28/08C1OR 104projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Saratoga?2nd2nd−0
2026-08-02Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-13Delaware Park?4th4th−0
2026-05-01Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd−0
2026-04-18Laurel Park?4th9th−4
2026-03-01Turfway Park?5th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/101/0313/0628/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
27/11/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
11/12/20255th11/1094%43%-0.51
01/03/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
18/04/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
01/05/20262nd14/126%75%+0.49
13/06/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
02/08/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
28/08/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04