2
Sunlit Uplands
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 112
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Flower Bowl Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Nottingham | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2024 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |