1
Criteria
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 88
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |