Shoot The Nickel

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-28	Saratoga	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2
2026-08-02	Saratoga	?	2nd	4th	−2	6.2
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	2nd	4th	−2	6.2
2026-05-03	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	5th	−3	5.0
2026-03-28	Aqueduct	?	4th	6th	−2	4.2
2026-02-26	Aqueduct	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength71%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/01/2026	1st	1/2	97%	100%	+0.03
12/02/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
19/02/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	86%	+0.03
26/02/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
28/03/2026	4th	11/8	93%	40%	-0.53
03/05/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	75%	+0.04
07/06/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	90%	+0.03
02/08/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	86%	+0.09
28/08/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09