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12

City War

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 42

Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 22/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS22/11C6C6 @ Aqueduct 13/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 41 · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 41 par13/12C6OR 41projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-13Aqueduct?9th6th+3
2025-11-22Aqueduct?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1113/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +13.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
13/12/20259th50/10%27%+0.27