14
Stella Fortuna
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |