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4

Paradise City

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 98

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Gallant Bloom Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 30/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fas 120 · beat its mark30/01/2025 · OR 89 par30/01C6OR 89C0 @ Gulfstream 29/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fas 122 · beat its mark29/03/2025 · OR 87 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 26/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fas 118 · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 90 par26/04C6OR 90C0 @ Charles Town 23/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 90 · 7f Fas 118 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 90 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 95 par20/09C1OR 95C0 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 95 parC1 @ Aqueduct 23/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 101 par23/11C1OR 101C6 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 121 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 97 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 99 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 99 par29/08C?OR 99projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?5th5th+0
2026-06-07Churchill Downs?1st7th−5
2025-11-23Aqueduct?7th7th−0
2025-10-18Belmont At The Big A?5th5th0
2025-09-20Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd−0
2025-08-23Charles Town?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0123/0823/1129/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
29/03/20255th5/174%20%-0.54
26/04/20252nd6/492%83%-0.09
23/08/20254th16/116%67%+0.51
20/09/20252nd40/10%86%+0.86
18/10/20255th11/271%43%-0.28
23/11/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
07/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
29/08/20265th50/10%50%+0.50