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5

R Disaster

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Gallant Bloom Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 1.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Delaware Park 31/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 6f Gd 125 · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 101 par31/05C5OR 101C0 @ Saratoga 20/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 104 parC6 @ Saratoga 20/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 104 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 104 par20/08C6OR 104C0 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 6f110y 123 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 106 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 107 · 6f 124 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 107 par8/11C5OR 107C1 @ Gulfstream 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 109 · 6f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Keeneland 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 111 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 111 par4/04C?OR 111C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 110 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 105 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 105 par29/08C?OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?6th6th+0
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?1st1st+0
2026-04-04Keeneland?3rd3rd+0
2026-03-07Gulfstream?1st1st−0
2025-11-08Churchill Downs?2nd7th−4
2025-09-27Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0527/094/0429/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
20/07/20252nd5/287%86%-0.01
20/08/20251st8/1597%100%+0.03
27/09/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
08/11/20252nd1/297%80%-0.17
07/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
04/04/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
02/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
29/08/20266th15/261%38%-0.23