Boxed Wine
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |