4
Brunch With Amy
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |