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3

Nycon

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength96%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 15/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f Fas 11915/10C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 19/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 1m Slo 119 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 90 par19/11C6OR 90C5 @ Gulfstream 01/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 81 par1/01C5OR 81C5 @ Aqueduct 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 84 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 84 par28/02C5OR 84C1 @ Aqueduct 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 86 par4/04C1OR 86C0 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m1f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par25/07C?OR 88C0 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 88 · 1m2f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 88 par22/08C?OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Saratoga?6th0th+5
2026-07-25Saratoga?6th0th+5
2026-04-04Aqueduct?4th-2th+5
2026-02-28Aqueduct?2nd1st+1
2026-01-01Gulfstream?2nd1st+1
2025-11-19Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1028/0222/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -9.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20254th20/10%73%+0.73
19/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
01/01/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
28/02/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
04/04/20264th7/163%57%-0.06
25/07/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
22/08/20266th50/10%0%0.00