10
Sailaway
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |