9
Fireballin
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |