6
Joker On Fire
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/01/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/03/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |