3
Light Fantastic
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 13% | -0.70 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |