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Stormy Birthday

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saratoga 19/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 60 par19/07C5OR 60C5 @ Saratoga 16/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 74 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 81 par14/09C5OR 81C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 85 par7/11C5OR 85C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 16/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f Fm 126 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 78 par4/07C5OR 78C5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Saratoga 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 83 par28/08C5OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-07-25Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-05-16Belmont At The Big A?9th9th0
2025-11-07Aqueduct?2nd2nd0
2025-10-10Belmont At The Big A?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0710/104/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength86%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
16/08/20254th25/10%67%+0.67
14/09/20252nd14/126%91%+0.65
10/10/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
07/11/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
16/05/20269th9/276%0%-0.76
04/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
25/07/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
28/08/20264th12/137%63%+0.26