4
Van Vollenhoven
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 6/4 | 92% | 9% | -0.83 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |