5
Bring The Smoke
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 88
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |