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8

Contrary Thinking

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Aqueduct 23/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 98 par23/04C5OR 98C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 29/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 94 parC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 102 · 1m1f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 102 par2/08C?OR 102C0 @ Saratoga 31/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 76 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m2f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 79 par1/11C?OR 79C6 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m Slo 121 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 78 parC6 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 7f 126 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 88 par6/06C6OR 88C6 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f110y 126 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Saratoga 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 7f 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 98 par14/08C6OR 98projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Saratoga?1st7th−5
2026-07-10Saratoga?2nd8th−5
2026-06-06Saratoga?2nd8th−5
2026-04-25Aqueduct?3rd9th−5
2025-11-01Del Mar?9th9th+0
2025-08-31Saratoga?6th6th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0431/086/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20254th3/184%25%-0.59
29/06/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
02/08/20259th66/10%0%0.00
31/08/20256th66/10%29%+0.29
01/11/20259th66/10%0%0.00
25/04/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
06/06/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86
10/07/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
14/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16