IvyArcIvyArc
7

Crazy Mason

5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 106

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Aqueduct 05/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 106 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2025 · OR 106 par5/04C?OR 106C1 @ Saratoga 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 107 · 6f110y Slo 122 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 107 parC0 @ Del Mar 27/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 108 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2025 · OR 108 par27/07C?OR 108C0 @ Saratoga 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 110 · 7f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 110 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 108 · 7f 125 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 108 par27/09C1OR 108C1 @ Keeneland 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 114 · 7f 118 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 114 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 110 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 110 par2/05C?OR 110C1 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 116 · 1m 118 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 108 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 108 par29/08C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?4th4th+0
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?3rd3rd+0
2026-04-04Keeneland?2nd2nd0
2025-09-27Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd0
2025-08-23Saratoga?3rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0423/082/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
07/06/20253rd8/158%67%+0.09
27/07/20256th8/158%38%-0.20
23/08/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
27/09/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
04/04/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
02/05/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
28/06/20266th6/168%44%-0.24
29/08/20264th7/163%40%-0.23